Pirate Shop Token Odds: How Rare Is It?

Where the 1 in 700,000 odds estimate comes from

It is an estimate, not a datamined or official value. It spread through community reporting in the first days of Treasure Hunters, when only a handful of finds had been reported out of what must have been an enormous number of chests opened. Treat it as a ballpark. If the real rate turns out to be higher or lower, change it in the calculator and every number updates.

“Epic Games has not revealed the odds of finding a token.”

Two things make the estimate shaky. First, nobody outside Epic knows how many chests were opened in total, so "finds ÷ chests" is a guess on both sides of the fraction. Second, a find is only counted if someone posts about it, and plenty of players won't. Both effects push in different directions, which is why we show the math rather than a single headline number.

Pirate Shop Token drop rate: what's confirmed

Not everything you read about the token has the same standing. Here's how each claim on this site is sourced:

Pirate shop token odds in real matches

Chances below assume 1 in 700,000 per chest and 42 days of play. Squad rows count every player's chests, because the token goes to the whole party.

Pirate token chance per match

Per match, the number that matters is how many chests your whole party opens. With five chests each:

Opening eight chests each in squads improves that to about 1 in 21,900 per match. It's a real improvement — but it's still a long way from likely.

The odds math, without jargon

Every chest is a separate lottery ticket. The chance that none of your tickets win is (1 − 1/700,000) multiplied by itself once per chest. Your chance of winning at least once is one minus that.

• Chance per chest: 0.00014%
• Chests for a coin-flip (50%) chance: about 485,000
• Chests for a 90% chance: about 1.6 million

The single biggest factor you control is party size. Going from solo to squads quadruples your rolls without opening a single extra chest yourself. The second factor is chests per minute: landing somewhere you can loot without fighting beats a hot drop where you open one chest and go back to the lobby.

One common mistake: assuming that after many chests you're "due" a token. You aren't. Each chest has the same chance no matter how many you've opened before, so your odds tomorrow are exactly what they were today.

How rare is that, compared to…

• Being dealt a royal flush in five-card poker is about 1 in 650,000 — similar to one chest roll.
• Flipping a coin and getting 19 or 20 heads in a row is about as likely as one specific chest dropping the token.
• A full squad playing a normal evening (say 4 matches) has roughly the same chance as being dealt a royal flush in about 80 hands — slim, but it does happen to someone every day.

Can the odds change?

Epic can adjust loot tables at any time, and live events sometimes change what chests contain. If the drop rate is raised, lowered or officially revealed, we'll update the default in the calculator and the tables on this page. Until then, treat any "boosted odds" claim on social media as unverified.

Why so few players have found the token

With hundreds of thousands of chests per token, even a huge player base only produces a trickle of finds each day. That's also why every confirmed find spreads quickly on social media — and why fake "I got the token" posts and scams follow right behind.

What to do with these odds

Play the season the way you enjoy and treat the token as a bonus. If you want the best possible shot, the honest list is short: play in a full party, open every chest you pass, and play more matches rather than longer ones. The how to get the Pirate Shop Token guide covers that in detail.